Retail Inflation At 6-Yr Low Sparks More Rate Cut Hopes

We expect the RBI to opt in for a 25bps cut in policy rates in view of the fragile global economic and geopolitical environment in the June 2025 monetary policy review. The cumulative rate cut in FY26 would depend on the pace of decline in inflation and evolving inflation-growth dynamics, forecasts Paras Jasrai, Associate Director at Ind-Ra

New Delhi: Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019. NSO data showed a sharp decline of 91 basis points in food inflation in April 2025 in comparison to March 2025.

The food inflation in April 2025 is the lowest since October 2021. Food inflation in April was 1.78 per cent, lower than 2.69 per cent in the preceding month and 8.7 per cent in the year-ago month, showed data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at four per cent with a margin of two per cent on either side, has slashed the key interest rate by 50 basis points in two tranches (February and April) as the price situation improved.

The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent; Q2 at 3.9 per cent; Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

“The significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of April 2025 is mainly attributed to decline in inflation of vegetables, pulses and products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care and effects and cereals and products,” NSO said.