Hopes high on COP 28 breakthrough with regard to adapting emission reducing strategies

All eyes will be on the 28th session of the conference on the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (COP) that will be hosted in Dubai from November 30 to December 12. This is a particularly crucial time as climate risks and global warming are on the rise. Meanwhile, the progress made towards mitigation and adaptation of a strategy and plans towards reducing emissions to restrict the global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels are at different levels. There is urgency as regards action at an enhanced level to avoid future disasters and suffering.

The developed countries have to extend their financial support to low-income countries and the disadvantage groups. It is, hence, imperative that COP 28 will lead to an arrangement to deliver on the promised help.

Experts opine that many countries are not doing enough to contain the global warming threat. No one knows for sure about who is most responsible and the measures to track emission-reduction goals.

Incidentally, most of the 195 countries, which are party to the Paris Accord 2015, are not on track to meet the goals, which can happen by adopting more ambitious decarbonisation plans. The September global stock-take warned governments that "the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris agreement,"

Heat waves, droughts and floods, rising sea levels, ocean changes, arctic ice thaws and extinction of species are some of the climate change impacts, which will occur when global temperature warms by 1.5°C. The consequences will be far worse if the 2°C threshold is reached, caution scientists. Meanwhile, according to a report, India and China are now amongst the world's top annual remitters, along with the United States.

The current warming levels and the fluctuation being noticed indicate that all member countries and their corporate houses have to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels burning.

COP 28 President Dr. Sultan Ali Jaber has quite rightly called for unity, action and multilateralism. He has urged multilateral development banks to work faster in addressing climate finance and development challenges. The COP 28 Presidency has launched a charter to urge the private sector to commit to greater credibility and accountability in their net zero emissions targets.

The four key areas of the Presidency are: fast tracking a just energy transition; fixing climate finance; focussing on lives and livelihoods, and undertaking everything with full inclusivity.

It remains to be seen if the developed countries will deliver on the $100 billion pledge this year. They have been urged to double adaptation finances by 2025 and replenish the Green Climate Fund.

Responsibility and accountability for loss and damage revolves around specific nations and entities like the United Nations, who contribute a quarter of the heat trapping emissions fueling climate change. Fossil fuel companies in the rich nations also bear responsibility for the climate crisis and the damages their products have wrought.

The UN Environment Programme on November 2 released NEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2023. It says that there has been greater number of devastating storms, floods, droughts and heat ways in the recent period. While taking stock of member countries in planning, financing and preparedness in terms of implementing adaptation actions, it points out that financial requirements have gone up by up to 10 to 18 times.

The modelled costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at $215 billion per year this decade. The adaptation finance needed to implement domestic priorities is estimated at $387 billion per year. However, the public multilateral and bilateral adaptation finance flows- to developing countries declined by 15% to $21 billion in 2021. As a result of this, the current adaptation finance gaps is now estimated at $194-366 billion per year. At the same time, the report finds that adaptation planning and implementation appear to be plateauing. This situation will have massive implications for losses and damages particularly for the most vulnerable.

The requirement of funds can be met with a policy framework to promote green energy, water conservation, food security and carbon credit. The next step is towards adaptation strategies and address residual risks for disaster risk reduction, minimise loss and damages which includes disaster risk management, assessment of losses and damages, capacity building, early warning systems, insurance compensation, social protection measures, support for rebuilding livelihoods and for communities to preserve their culture, humanitarian response and forecast based finance, reflecting the grey zone that exists in practice between adaptation and loss and damage.

The report identifies seven ways to bridge the adaptation financing gaps: 1. International public adaptation finance; 2. Domestic expenditure on adaptation; 3. Private sector finance for adaptation; 4. Remittance by migrants to native places, which contribute significantly to GDP; 5. Increasing finance tailored to small and medium sized enterprises; 6. Reforming the global financial architecture and 7. Implementing article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement on making finance flows- consistent with a pathway towards low-carbon and climate resilient development.

The government of India launched National Action Plan on Climate Change ( NAPCC) on June 30, 2008 outlining eight National Missions on Climate Change namely 1. National Solar Mission 2. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency 3.National Mission on Sustainable Habitat 4. National Water Mission 5. National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system 6. National Mission for a Green India 7. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture and 8. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge on Climate Change

India updated First Nationally Determined Contribution namely 1. To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and valued of conservation and moderation through a mass movement for LIFE- Lifestyle for Environment as a key to combating climate change; 2. To adopt climate friendly and cleaner path than the one followed hitherto by others at corresponding level of economic development; 3.To reduce Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 from the 2005 levels; 4. To achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology and low-cost international finance, including from the Green Climate Fund (GCF); 5. To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forex and tree cover by 2030; 6. To better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programmes in agriculture, water resources, Himalayan region, coastal regions and disaster management; 7. To mobilize domestic and additional funds in developed countries, and 8. To build capacities, create domestic framework and international architecture for quick diffusion of cutting edge climate technology.

Currently most of the developed and developing countries have contracted heavy debt in the backdrop of Covid-19. Most of the Central Banks have increased interest rates substantially in response to inflation and the current yields have gone up higher, which will enhance the cost of borrowing and cost of capital.

Due to geo political factors and the continued Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, commodities prices particularly oil and food are likely to go up which again affects the least developed economies.

(The author is former Chairman & Managing Director of Indian Overseas Bank)