SBI forecast GDP above RBI's 9.5% for FY22
Enthused by the increased GDP number for the second quarter of the current fiscal, SBI's internal economic research wing has projected the India's GDP growth rate to cross 9.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
Global headwinds: RBI lowers FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%
Mumbai: Enthused by the increased GDP number for the second quarter of the current fiscal, SBI's internal economic research wing has projected the India's GDP growth rate to cross 9.5 per cent in the current fiscal. Of course, the GDP growth at 8.4 per cent is more than that of the SBI's projection of 8.1 per cent.
"We now expect GDP growth for FY22 to top 9.5 per cent, the RBI forecast. We believe that the real GDP growth would now be higher than the RBI's estimate of 9.5 per cent, assuming the RBI growth numbers for Q3 and Q4 to be sacrosanct," says Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI group chief economic advisor.
India's GDP grew by 8.4 per cent in Q2 on the back of double-digit growth in 'Mining & Quarrying' and 'Public Administration, Defence and Other Services'. The real GVA increased by 8.5 per cent, a tad higher than the GDP growth. Nominal GDP growth jumped by 17.5 per cent, driven in part by a GDP deflator at 8.4 per cent. For Q2, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth is 6.6 per cent q-o-q compared to 10.36 per cent q-o-q non-adjusted real GDP growth. Core GVA, a proxy of private sector growth expanded by 7.5 per cent, the highest since Q1FY19.
In H1 FY21, the country exhibited real GDP loss of Rs 11.4 lakh crore (on y-o-y basis) due to complete lockdown in Apr-May and partial lockdown in Jun-Sep. The situation has improved in FY22 and in H1 FY22 the real gain was around Rs 8.2 lakh crore. This indicates that real loss of Rs 3.2 lakh crore still needs to be recouped to reach the pre-pandemic level. Sector-wise data indicates that 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting' are still the most affected sectors and the real loss of Rs 2.6 lakh crore is still needed to be recouped in this sector. Overall, economy is still operating at 95.6 per cent of pre-pandemic level (with 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting' still at 80 per cent) and should take one more quarter to recoup the losses, the report says.
