Weak monsoon set to squeeze coffee output

Bengaluru Coffee production in India is likely to be negatively impacted owing to the scanty rainfall in major growing regions of the country with some growers anticipating 25 per cent drop in overall output for 2023-24 crop season.

According to Coffee Board’s post-blossom or early estimates, India’s coffee crop for 2023-24 crop year starting October is projected to be higher at 3.74 lakh tonne. This estimate is 6.25 per cent higher than 3.52 lakh tonne, which is the final 2022-23 crop estimate.

With high temperature during March-April period coupled with uneven rainfall in July & August, this estimate is likely to see a fall in the current crop season.

“In March-April, there was very high temperature, which impacted the flowering in the coffee crop. As it is, the crop was low going into the monsoon period. Now, owing to lack of rains in monsoon season, the plant is growing faster. During the monsoon, usually ripens process slows down due to rains. This is not the case now and ripening is happening faster. Definitely, this is going to impact the crops badly,” Nishanth R Gurjar, former chairperson of Karnataka Planters Association told Bizz Buzz.

“Production-wise, it can dip by 25 per cent against last year,” he added.

Gurjar, who himself is a grower and exporter of coffee, said that revival of monsoon towards the later part may not serve the purpose.

India is major producer of coffee along with Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia among others.

The country mostly produces Robusta variety of coffee with around 70 per cent of the total production belonging to this variety. India produced around 2.6 lakh tonne of Robusta coffee in 2022-23, while Arabica production was around one lakh tonne during this period.

Despite a likelihood of lower coffee production in the current crop year, pricing is not likely to be changed as international prices remained firm.

In the international market, Robusta prices are ruling around Rs224 per kg, while Arabica prices are hovering around Rs276 per kg.

The weather pattern El Nino is expected to play truant in major growing regions of Brazil and Vietnam. This is likely to pull down Robusta production in these major growing regions.

If the world faces lower production than last year, it is very much likely that prices would hold at current level. Notably, prices of both Robusta and Arabica shot up in the last six months in the international market.