India Shifts Oil Imports Amid Hormuz Tensions, Boosts Crude Sourcing from Russia and US in June

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, India has significantly shifted its oil sourcing strategy, increasing imports from Russia and the United States in June—outpacing its traditional crude suppliers in the Gulf region.

According to data from global trade analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners are set to import 2 to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June 2025. This marks the highest monthly volume in two years, surpassing the combined intake from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, which is expected to total around 2 million bpd.

Surge in Russian and US Crude Imports

India's oil imports from Russia rose from 1.96 million bpd in May to potentially 2.2 million bpd in June, while US crude shipments surged from 280,000 bpd to 439,000 bpd during the same period. Between June 1 and 19, Russian oil accounted for over 35% of India's crude intake.

“This shift reflects a resilience-oriented diversification strategy,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler. “If conflict around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, India may rely more heavily on Russian and US supplies, along with alternate sources like Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil—albeit at higher freight costs.”

Hormuz Threat and Supply Security Concerns

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of India’s oil and half its gas imports pass, has become a flashpoint amid Iranian threats to close the strategic waterway in response to US and Israeli military actions. Though a full blockade is considered unlikely, shipping trends suggest growing caution.

Kpler observed a decline in ballast tanker activity—ships sailing empty to pick up oil—in the Gulf of Oman, with numbers falling from 69 to just 40, signaling possible disruptions in Gulf-origin crude flow.

Iran’s reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for 96% of its oil exports, particularly via Kharg Island, makes a full shutdown counterproductive, Ritolia explained. Additionally, Iran’s major energy customer, China, sources nearly 47% of its seaborne crude from the Gulf, making sustained disruptions risky for Tehran as well.

India’s Strategic Reserves and Diversification Plan

India may also tap into its strategic petroleum reserves, which cover approximately 9 to 10 days of import needs, to cushion any short-term shocks. Meanwhile, the country continues to strengthen ties with non-Gulf oil producers and explore safer, alternate maritime routes like the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and the Pacific to avoid conflict zones.

Since 2022, when Western sanctions made Russian oil available at steep discounts, Russia’s share in India’s crude mix has ballooned from under 1% to over 40%, drastically reducing dependence on Hormuz-transiting suppliers.

June Outlook: Middle East Imports Decline

As of June 19, India imported approximately 1.9 million bpd from Middle Eastern countries, with the full month expected to close at around 2.0 million bpd—still 100,000–150,000 bpd lower than May levels.

This strategic pivot marks a significant moment in India’s energy security roadmap, with long-term implications for how the country hedges geopolitical risks while ensuring uninterrupted supply.