IMF says it doesn’t validate data behind India’s GDP stats

Mumbai, Dec 08

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it does not validate data supplied by member nations.

Responding to questions from a Mumbai-based business analyst and commentator after India received a ‘C’ grade for its national accounts, an IMF spokesperson said the Data Adequacy Framework, introduced last year, is “not an instrument for data validation.”

The analyst, BN Kumar, had earlier asked the IMF by email whether the institution independently analyses Indian datasets or simply accepts government submissions.

“The framework examines how the data provided to the Fund affects the country team’s ability to conduct effective surveillance,” the spokesperson said.

The IMF added that the Data Adequacy Assessment evaluates the coverage, consistency, granularity, timeliness and frequency of information provided by national authorities. The institution emphasised that the framework assesses whether data are adequate for surveillance — not whether the numbers are accurate or methodologically sound.

The clarification assumes significance amid criticism in some quarters that India had suffered an embarrassing ‘downgrade’ from the IMF. Opposition leaders had cited the ‘C’ rating as evidence of declining statistical integrity, prompting demands for explanations from the government.

Talking to Bizz Buzz, Kumar says, “There is a widespread misconception that the IMF cross-checks or verifies national data before issuing assessments.”

There is a general conception that the IMF gives rankings after validating the data given by various governments. I have been writing that it does not. It simply goes by whatever the governments submit, he said.

He added that claims by ministers projecting IMF assessments as proof of strong economic performance “appear to be highly far-fetched since the ranking is not independently validated data, but merely a reproduction of what is fed by the government.”

The IMF also clarified to Kumar that, as with all member states, it works with India’s official statistical system — including the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) — and relies on the data supplied without independently verifying them.

The Data Adequacy Assessment, introduced as part of Article IV consultations in 2024, replaced an earlier framework established in 2008. According to an accompanying IMF policy paper, the reform aimed to ensure that data weaknesses are flagged more transparently and that staff can recommend corrective actions or capacity-development support early in the process. The framework, the IMF said, is not intended to evaluate adherence to international methodological standards.

Under the new system, India received an overall ‘B’ rating in both 2024 and 2025, indicating that data are broadly adequate but contain notable gaps. The ‘C’ rating for national accounts reflected several methodological shortcomings, including the continued use of the 2011–12 base year, reliance on wholesale price indices due to the absence of producer price indices, discrepancies between production and expenditure approaches, and the lack of seasonally adjusted data.

These issues, the IMF said, “somewhat hamper surveillance,” but do not imply any judgment on the credibility of India’s statistical system.

The institution also noted that its separate Data Quality Assessment Framework — used in voluntary Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes — last covered India in 2004. These reviews help countries benchmark their statistical practices against international norms but are not linked to surveillance adequacy.

Arun Kumar, former professor of economics at JNU says, “Indian official data is not up to the mark for the IMF team to a correct assessment of India’s GDP.’

The IMF said it continues to support India in updating national accounts, the Consumer Price Index, the Index of Industrial Production and the development of a producer price index. It will reassess India’s data adequacy after the release of the updated national accounts series expected in February 2026.