GDP Growth For The Entire Fiscal May Be Less Than Expected

It Appears That The Year-On-Year Expansion Of The Gdp Will Rise To 6.9 Per Cent In Q4 From 6.2 Per Cent A Month Ago, While Significantly Undershooting The National Statistical Office’s Implicit Estimate Of 7.6 Per Cent For The Quarter. The Growth In The Gross Value Added Is Estimated To Record A Relatively Milder Pick-Up To 6.3 Per Cent

In Q4 From 6.2 Per Cent In The Month-Ago Period, Driven By A Slight Uptick In The Industrial Sector, With A Relatively Stable Performance Of The Services, And Agriculture. Unless There Are Material Revisions In The Data For Q1-Q3, Icra Projects A Sharp Step Down In The Full-Year Gdp And Gva Expansion To 6.3 Per Cent And 6.2 Per Cent, Respectively, In Fy25 From 9.2 Per Cent And 8.6 Per Cent, Respectively, In Fy24, Driven By Industry And Services. This Is Also Lower Than The Nso’s Second Advance Estimate Of 6.5 Per Cent For Gdp And 6.4 Per Cent For Gva For Fy25. Real Gdp Growth For Q4, As Per Careedge, Is Projected To Be 6.8 Per Cent.

This Quarterly Performance Brings The Full-Year Fy25 Gdp Growth To 6.3 Per Cent, Slightly Lower Than Our Earlier Forecast Of 6.4 Per Cent. In The Backdrop Of Trade-Related Uncertainty Triggered By The Us Tariffs, India’s Investment Activity Showcased A Mixed Trend In Q4. The Performance Of Only Six Of The 11 Investment-Related High Frequency Indicators Improved In Q4 Over Q3, Mostly Pertaining To The Construction Sector, Including Infrastructure/Construction Goods’ Output, Cement Production, And Finished Steel Consumption. The Gdp Growth In Q4 Is Likely To Be Supported By Strong Momentum In Sectors Such As Agriculture, Hotels And Transport And Construction. While The Pace Of Expansion Of Services Exports Slowed To 14.1 Per Cent In Q4 From 17.9 Per Cent In Q3, It Continued To Print In Double Digits For The Third Consecutive Quarter. Notably, Services Exports Stood At $102.0 Billion In Q4, The Highest Level Seen In The Q4 Of Any Fiscal Year. Based On The Second Advance Estimates Of Rabi Output For 2024-25, The Gva Growth Of Agriculture, Forestry And Fishing Is Estimated At A Rather Healthy 5.5 Per Cent In Q4.

This Is Similar To 5.6 Per Cent Seen In Q3, Albeit Lower Than The Nso’s Implicit

Growth Estimate Of 6.2 Per Cent For The Quarter. Rural Sentiments, As Reflected In The Current Situation Index Improved Somewhat In The January Round Of The Rbi’s Rural Consumer Confidence Survey, And Re-Entered Positive Territory In March, Likely Aided By Cash Flows From The Kharif Harvest And Favourable Trends In Rabi Sowing And Output. Interestingly, The March Round Of Rbi’s Urban Consumer Confidence Survey, Which Is Conducted In 19 Major Cities, Revealed That Urban Consumer Sentiments Improved Further, With Csi Rising To 95.5 From 93.7 In January, While Remaining In Negative Territory. Again, Keeping In View Global Uncertainties That Pose A Headwind, Experts Do See Fy26 Gdp Growth Also To Remain Muted At 6.2 Per Cent.