Provisional GDP Data Out: How India’s Economy Fared This Fiscal

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran on Friday said India’s economy is in good health and could reach the upper end of its projected 6.3%–6.8% growth range for FY26, provided key drivers such as foreign direct investment (FDI), private capital expenditure, and urban consumption continue to strengthen.

"All in all, given the global environment, our economy is doing quite well," said Nageswaran during a virtual press briefing following the release of India’s provisional GDP data for FY25 and the January–March 2025 quarter.

He noted that if efforts to attract FDI persist, private sector capital investments continue rising, as observed in FY25, and urban spending increases with stronger hiring, capital formation, and income growth, India could clock growth at the higher end of the 6.3%–6.8% range.

GDP Performance: FY25 and Q4 Snapshot

As per the second advance estimates from the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s real GDP growth for FY25 stood at 6.5%, aligning with both government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections.

Quarter-wise GDP growth for FY25 was:

Q1 (Apr–Jun 2024): 6.7%

Q2 (Jul–Sep 2024): 5.6%

Q3 (Oct–Dec 2024): 6.2%

Q4 (Jan–Mar 2025): 7.4%

This marks a slight moderation compared to previous years:

FY24: 9.2%

FY23: 7.2%

FY22: 8.7%

Benign Inflation and Promising Monsoon Outlook

On food inflation concerns, the CEA offered reassurance, citing strong rabi harvests, robust summer sowing, healthy government procurement, and predictions of an above-normal monsoon season—especially in India’s rain-fed agricultural zones.

“With adequate inventory and good crop output, benign food price trends are expected to continue,” he said.

External Environment and Global Growth

Addressing global economic trends, Nageswaran pointed out that while international growth forecasts for 2025–26 are expected to be trimmed due to uncertainties, India would likely see only marginal downward revisions, thanks to its resilient domestic fundamentals.

He added that exports remain strong, forex reserves can cover 11 months of imports, and softening crude oil prices will reduce import costs and ease fiscal pressure.

FY26 Growth Outlook

The government remains optimistic about FY26, maintaining a growth projection in the range of 6.3%–6.8%, primarily fueled by:

Recovery in rural demand

Strong services exports

Continued private consumption momentum

Several global and domestic institutions have also forecast India’s growth for FY26 to fall between 6.3% and 6.7%.