Nominal GDP growth pegged at 10.5% for FY2024-25, revised down from the earlier estimate

Hyderabad: Government data released on Thursday indicates that the fiscal deficit has reached Rs 11 lakh crore at the end of January, amounting to 63.6 percent of the revised annual target.

This figure marks a decrease from the corresponding period last year when the deficit was 67.8 percent of the Union Budget 2022-23's Revised Estimates (RE).

The estimated fiscal deficit for 2023-24 is Rs 17.35 lakh crore, equivalent to 5.8 percent of the GDP. The Controller General of Accounts (CGA) reported total receipts of Rs 22.52 lakh crore (81.7 percent of corresponding RE 2023-24 of total receipts) as of January 2024. These receipts include Rs 18.8 lakh crore of net tax revenue, Rs 3.38 lakh crore of non-tax revenue, and Rs 34,219 crore of non-debt capital receipts, which include the recovery of loans and miscellaneous capital receipts.

The Centre's total expenditure was Rs 33.54 lakh crore (74.7 percent of corresponding RE 2023-24), with Rs 26.33 lakh crore in the revenue account and Rs 7.2 lakh crore on capital account.

The central government transferred Rs 8,20,250 crore to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by this period, an increase of Rs 1,52,480 crore from the previous year.

Of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 8,21,731 crore was allocated to interest payments and Rs 3,15,559 crore to major subsidies.

ICRA's Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, commented on the data, stating that while there might be some deviation in the disinvestment target and capital expenditure could fall short of the FY2024 RE, ICRA does not anticipate the revised fiscal deficit target of Rs 17.3 lakh crore for FY2024 to be exceeded.

In the interim Budget, the Modi-led government refrained from announcing populist measures, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1 percent of the GDP in the next fiscal year and 4.5 percent in FY26.

The nominal GDP growth for the upcoming financial year is projected at 10.5 percent, down from the earlier estimate of 11 percent.

The budget estimate for nominal GDP 2024-25 stands at Rs 3,27,71,808 crore, assuming a 10.5 percent growth over the estimated nominal GDP of Rs 2,96,57,745 crore, as per the First Advance Estimates of FY2023-24.

The government achieved a fiscal deficit of 5.8 percent, slightly lower than the budget estimate of 5.9 percent for the current financial year, aided by an improvement in tax buoyancy.