Now, Fitch forecasts BJP win in 2024 polls
Global rating agency, however, says the size of majority in next Indian Parliament could influence ambitiousness of administration’s reform agenda
Almost half of its rated portfolio in the Asian region will hold legislative or presidential elections in 2024
Hat-trick On Horizon
- BBB-/stable rating on India
- Broad policy continuity likely
- Modi-led BJP came to power in 2014, retains it 2019
- Half of Asian region will hold Legislative or Presidential polls in 2024
New Delhi: There is likelihood of policy continuity to be maintained in India as the incumbent administration is most likely to retain power in the general elections due in April-May, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. However, the size of the majority in the next Indian Parliament could influence the ambitiousness of the administration’s reform agenda, it said.
“We believe it most likely that incumbent administrations will retain power in India (BBB-/stable) and Bangladesh (BB-/negative), during their general elections in April-May and January, respectively, pointing to the likelihood of broad policy continuity,” Fitch said in a statement. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP government had come to power in 2014 and came back with a thumping majority in 2019 general elections as well. The 2024 general elections are due in April-May and Fitch expects the Modi government to come back to power for the third time. The global rating agency said almost half of its rated portfolio in the Asian region will hold legislative or presidential elections in 2024.
Fitch said it expects continuity to be the main theme of the elections among its rated Asian sovereigns due in 2024. But the chance of election outcomes influencing credit profiles as being higher in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which are both dependent on successful IMF programme implementation and official support, as well as Taiwan, given potential geo-political implications.
