India to pip China in oil demand by 2027
International Energy Agency says the country is the 3rd largest oil consumer after the US and China
Fuelling Consumption
- India imports 85% of its oil needs
- This dependence may rise as domestic production falls
- Oil demand will rise from 5.48mn barrels/ day in 2023 to 6.64mn bpd in 2030
Betul (Goa): India will overtake China as the biggest driver of global oil demand in 2027 as transportation and industry consumption in the world’s fastest-growing major economy will drive growth despite a big push for clean energy and electrification, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. The Paris-based agency in a special Indian Oil Market Outlook to 2030 report released at the India Energy Week here, said the country’s oil demand will rise from 5.48 million barrels per day in 2023 to 6.64 million bpd in 2030. China currently is the biggest driver of oil demand and India ranks No.2 in growth. The numbers given by IEA in the report seem to talk of crude oil processed into fuel for domestic as well as for exports. The domestic consumption as per the oil ministry data is around 5 million barrels per day (bpd).
“India’s oil demand will grow at a rapid pace by 2030 despite accelerated green energy moves,” IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori said.
“Growth in India will surpass that of China in 2027.” But in absolute terms, demand in India will still lag China’s even in 2030. “As oil demand slows in developed countries and China, India becomes the largest source of growth,” said Toril Bosoni, head of oil industry and markets division, IEA.
India currently is the third largest consumer of oil behind the US and China. It imports 85 per cent of its oil needs and this dependence is likely to rise as domestic production falls. Diesel, she said, accounts for about 50 per cent of Indian gains and 20 per cent of global demand growth to 2030. The demand growth is despite the push for electric vehicles which make up for a small fraction of the automobiles on the road currently. The EV push will see greater adoption in two- and three-wheelers while their penetration in the four-wheeler segment would be around 5 per cent. “More than 500,000 barrels per day of oil demand will be avoided due to increased EV penetration, energy efficiency improvements and biofuels growth,” she said.
