Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA Leads, Tejashwi Yadav Emerges as Top Contender
NDA poised for Bihar 2025 win, while Tejashwi Yadav gains popularity. Exit polls indicate tight contest despite ruling alliance’s projected majority.
image for illustrative purpose
Recent exit polls, a total of eleven, have been made public during the last two days and they seem to indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to maintain its hegemony in the state of Bihar that has undergone two phases of assembly elections earlier this month. Although a majority of the polls favor the NDA, a single poll suggests a very narrowly contested election.
The NDA, a coalition involving JD (U) and BJP, gained the upper hand through CM Nitish Kumar's two-decade rule in the state along with PM Modi's eleven years at the Centre. The opposition front of RJD and Congress, named Mahagathbandhan, raised issues of anti-incumbency, bad governance, and unfulfilled employment promises as their arguments during polling on November 6 and 11.
In the past, exit polls done in Bihar have been quite erratic as the predictions made in 2015 and 2020 were completely off the mark with respect to the actual results.
The official Bihar assembly 2025 results will be out after the counting process, which will be held on November 14.
What Are Exit Polls?
Scientists conduct research by interviewing voters instantly after the voting time is over.
Predictions are dependent on voters' remarks given before the official results are announced.
Key Exit Poll Predictions for Bihar 2025
Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145–160, MGB 73–91, Others 5-10
Polstrat: NDA 133–148, MGB 87–102, Others 3–5
Matrize: NDA 147–167, MGB 70–90, JSP 5, Others 10
Vote Vibe: NDA 125–145, MGB 95–115, JSP 0–2, Others 1–3
People’s Pulse: NDA 133–159, MGB 75–101, JSP 0–5, Others 2–8
People’s Insight: NDA 133–148, MGB 87–102, JSP 0-2, Others 3-6
DVC Research: NDA 137–152, MGB 83–98, JSP 2–4
Axis My India: NDA 121–141, MGB 98–118, JSP 0–2
Today’s Chanakya: NDA 148–178, MGB 66–89, JSP 0
Poll Diary: NDA 184–209, MGB 32–49, Others 1-5
JVC: NDA 135–150, MGB 88–103, Others 3-7
NDA is expected to have a good performance across the whole state except in the Seemanchal region where Muslims form the majority.
Tejashwi Yadav has been recognized as a leading preference for Chief Minister by various surveys. Axis My India has 34% for Tejashwi and 22% for Nitish Kumar.
The differences in vote shares are very small in some polls: NDA about 43%, Mahagathbandhan roughly 41%, indicating a very close and competitive situation.
Newcomer Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is projected to obtain 0-5 seats, thus limiting its power.
NDA is expected to keep its rule in Bihar, thus prolonging Nitish Kumar’s reign.
At the same time, Tejashwi Yadav’s popularity is rising as a potential CM.
Very close predictions of vote shares reflect that the election will be very competitive even though NDA has the advantage on seats.
Current exit poll data indicates that JSP's influence is very limited. The Bihar Elections 2025 official results will be announced on November 14.
